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University of speech when the ice after the Shanghai A student asked
Full Record Date: December 8, 2008 at
Following is the video section (click the middle of the > The following is the full transcript (A student asked some)
Moderator: I am grateful when the teachers brought us a wonderful lecture, can be said to be full of reason, but no lack of humor. I think we can not wait to do while the teacher some further exchanges, and that the following is the Q & A session, students can raise their hands in question.
student A: When the teacher, and now the weather is cold, and we have to wear gloves to go out, that, if lost a pair of gloves a case, the entire pair of gloves to no use. I think the cold in this economy, economic reform and political reform through the economy just could form a winter glove, only if the lost glove, then political reform, economic reform can not continue. This is the original Xinhua News Agency reporters Yang Jicheng and De Guandian. right? I would like to ask you whether the economic crisis of our country to promote democracy and political reform, a major historical opportunity? you that our country progressive democratic political reform, which held views? Thank you!
when the ice: the reference to this question, I think of Obama. Obama, a black man, he kind of energy, the kind of light four shot the passion, the kind of smooth eloquence, the kind of elegant manners, you see such a person to be elected to the presidency, you can feel difficult to suppress a nation of this activity, this determination, this kind of cohesion. you turn look! would say that if a company is not good, people will not even punctuate the leadership of the seat to sit up, or a dying person, a dying man to sit up leadership positions He gives you the feeling of what?
in fact the real problem is that China's political reform Ye Hao, we are all trapped in the political reform, because there is no good kind of leadership, without which good Talent was elected to leadership posts up, he would protect their own interests, he would not put something on the livelihood of the people benefit, no matter how you mention will not work, I wrote the above, or even suggestions, there are many things that are flowing written in tears, but tears can not move them.
the administrative expenses of the West Why so few? because the people vote, he has some control mechanism. The first is the judicial control mechanism, you see things that point the Clinton Justice institutions can interrogate him, we here? Second, he has parliamentary control mechanism, and the third, he had the most important one, is that the people the right to vote, this one control mechanism, the fourth, his religious control mechanism, the West countries basically religion, he felt God do bad things will be punished, and we are atheism, there is no bottom line. but also for the fact we should also adjust the measures, for some good religion that we should support, not be inhibition. For the cult should be combated, if all religions are suppressed, but easy to lose this control mechanism. For example, we have religion in order to manage this one, we established the , very strange is that it is following a national Religious Affairs Office, the National Bureau of Religious Affairs prepared the vice ministerial level, and it is this office are ministerial establishment. So many things are strange here. I say that what does that mean? is that we need a control mechanism, ultimately need to go to the right to vote on. When the people vote, we can get their favorite candidates to leadership positions, there is one all is well resolved, do not have one, what are resolved not. Thank you!
student B: when the President Hello! see you here today have two feelings, the first is relatively heavy, for the words you just said, I have some experience, is the first time able to to hear the truth such a direct, more exciting, and happier to be able have the opportunity to hear the truth. then I would like to ask two questions, is now China's stock market and housing market, in the end they want to save the What? The second problem is hh embarrassed, too nervous today. often see your comments on Sina.com, is the first time today, see you at the scene. The second question is: how to make decision-makers, like our group of college students, sat below to listen to you speak? Thank you!
when the Ice: The second question, If anyone can come up with an answer that time let me know.
the first question, we have now policy orientation is toward the side tilted in favor of vested interests, and if you study you will find the real estate and stock markets, whether stock market is up Ye Hao, or Ye Hao, which is to maximize the interests of a party-oriented interest groups . The U.S. stock market exit mechanism for its strict, if not listed, it gives you away, you have to withdraw from the market, you can not continue in it a trickster. In addition it also requires you dividends every quarter is to be divided shareholders how much money you require is hard, in each quarter. we do here, this one is very small. From 1990 to 2003, 13 years, the circulation of more than 600 shareholders dividends divided million, they pay the cost is 1 trillion.
us than an example, the Chinese oil market in the United States, from 2.9 billion U.S. market for financing, he gave the Americans a 11.9 billion U.S. dollars bonus points, 4 points on the 11.9 billion dividend . PetroChina listed in China, the financing of the 97 billion U.S. dollars, dividends divided by 600 million yuan.
China, the stock market is not so people can gain a place, so I try to appeal to the Chinese people do not go into this market which . Last year, I have several teachers, because look at me in the Securities News, asked to be my phone. my point of doing a good job after graduation, failure to make timely contact with them. They want to play the stock market, let me refer to the reference to them, I tossing and turning, insomnia, and to the teacher how to answer ah? then I finally told them not to intervene the stock market, and then this year they are very grateful to me: that, because there is no access to the stock market, so there is no losing money.
it (the government) now save the property market, because the property market involves the interests of local government, why should the local government to save the property market? because local government revenue is mainly derived from that one, from with the real estate (that one). But why did it have to be rely on this piece of it? of many economic problems, research to half do not always go down, I was kind of like a shovel digging in the end people.
time since 1988, we did not land transfer payments, was called the land transfer fee. that time is divided into the central and local, national and local change forty-six Fifth divided into .1989, after the 1993 tax system reform, the central piece of all the land that all the income to local governments. Why ah? is to make it land! because it was against the local government control, for instance, Guangdong, some local governments do not obey, it is money, money to the rich and powerful to just say that rich people poor people theory. Central in order to strengthen his authority to implement reforms to the tax system took away the money. taken away after the confiscation powers to go, that is, doing this thing or place, where is the money. no money how to do? to sell to! out the demolition, the series of problems arise.
So, If we are to solve this problem, in terms of root causes, reform the tax system also needs to be adjusted. is not this an adjustment, if the local government in a forced prostitution of the mechanism, it can only rely on land sales, only by increasing land prices, raise prices (to maintain). This mechanism can not change, so that the (local government) is now active in the rescue real estate, housing market . he will always remember, it will always save the real estate, but it sometimes can not save, do not save, because people were emptied.
this wave of stock market decline, 60% m70% of the middle class, middle-income of all destroyed, the house fell to no support. and then a house in mid-rise, income overdraft. The United Nations in 1995, more than 50 countries on a survey, they come to a conclusion. the price of a house and a two income family of more than a year, in between 2 to 5 is reasonable, that is, a family between 2 to 5 years is reasonable to buy a house. more than 6 to more trouble, and many of our country cities over 20,40 in excess.
there were an economist, said: when the President, your research is too one-sided, with their different national conditions. I say you this is lame, why all the conditions are detrimental to the people? all with the international standards are also detrimental to the common people.
This is our researchers misled the government, the government is an easy to make mistakes sometimes children. He said he is the people raise their , he is the people's children. He is our child, he will make mistakes, you should guide him, and wrong should tell him, not shoot his horse fart every day are made into a film is the son of Columbia. We are now The problem is the symptoms. well the next question.
Moderator: What is the problem we can when the teacher asked us.
when Ice: Well, we just ask, I will pick the answer I will .
students C: Hello my teacher when I asked a question relating to the Fund. Like some funds, is not it can be explained: If the stock market is not good, the fund market is not no hope, then, we are now some also buy the fund, is not now need to get out, but I do not know what will happen later, so we do not know how the future will develop. Another problem is that we suddenly found that two days before the rate cut, lowering the deposit rate problem. but some scholars believe that we should not cut interest rates, but should remain stable yuan Ye Hao, Ye Hao appreciation, so this place we 搞不太清楚, so when the teacher gave us an explanation. Thank you!
ice time : I was very aware of, listening to your question I screwed anyway, hehe. investing in stocks and funds on this thing, I think college students like you if you have the knowledge to try not to buy a fund. Fund What ah? Fund to fund many of the key at all times serve as cannon fodder, so I can only say this, I do securities industry, I said too thoroughly, leading back to thinking what should I do to find work.
So try not to buy the fund. Fund What is it? fund someone else do it for you. He earned both take your loss of management fees, he received a lot of your costs. another, Rat, for example, he first bought it, buy low price, then take your money bass bass bass go up, so after running after it, you hang it out.
the RMB exchange rate issue is the adjustment, but a little late, should in the first half or the end of last year when the adjustment is better. is indeed late, many companies have already died. I went to Guangzhou, Dongguan, business failures, a month away from the migrant workers in Dongguan is 100 million to 300 million people for three months Now our country is the economic crisis in some areas. because I spoke, the people of our country is poor, weak domestic demand, a slight decline in foreign demand, the economic crisis on our country.
you see why the subprime crisis today, All the countries are problems in the financial issues, only our country is on the problems in the real economy, is the economic crisis. If people do not put up people's incomes, the emergence of the problem will continue, but will be more intensive to appear. well, the next question.
student D: when the teacher Hi, I have two questions, the first is that some scholars believe that the financial crisis on China has a lag effect, that what you think of China in the coming year will be affected most severely affected, the situation is the worst. The second problem is that recently many people say that is not suitable for China's financial institutions to buy the dips America, the West's financial markets, thank you!
when the Ice: The first question I do not know which one you are listening to experts said, but I suggest next time you visit him with a brick.
On the second question, is not bargain-hunting opportunities? I do not think the opportunity to copy the financial bottom but the opportunity to copy the resource base. I was in my book, the most resources, who is the more affluent, who the more powerful, who is more money.
resources, because all countries are printing money by the way to solve the financial crisis. Merkel said a few days ago, I was After reading very mixed feelings, I know why Germany so powerful, because it chose a very good woman. Merkel said Western countries are to rescue the market, have accused Merkel Shangwang not active in the rescue. I have studied in Germany economy, I found that although Germany is the West, but its economy with other Western countries is different. It's virtual economy is small, he was mainly rely on corporate finance? rely mainly on bank loans, rather than capital market , not by the virtual, virtual economy does not depend on that piece, it is the real deal the real economy doing well, its manufacturing is very good. Merkel did not agree to a substantial bailout, Merkel said that if we do save the city We dug a bigger hole, five years before we will repeat such a crisis.
So, in the future is a resource for the king, my book was the thirteenth chapter, I devoted a chapter to discuss this is the safe to buy Fortis shares, investment 23.8 billion, thanks to left 10 billion. It's a level far in our small retail investors under the worst. This year on January 21, when the media published Ping to finance 160 billion to western countries vote, when I was a stand out, desperate to stop it. write articles, we were fabricating public opinion, we gang to stop him. If you do not stop it, 160 billion perhaps no.
now really have the opportunity, for instance, Fortis, the stock fell 96%, it (China) there is no money to buy back this time. In times of financial crisis, we should copy what end? copy of resources at the end! example, stone coal, iron ore, gold, copper, these mines can be a lot of buy. In the future, their prices will be doubled.
my recent research enterprise, most companies do in the future to make money is a resource ah! you get was able to make big money ah! and selling resources in our country, ah, we found three 2007-level gold mine in Asia, all sold. there is a gold mine, which is how to sell it? gold exploration in our country when the It is with the cooperation of foreign cooperative exploration and gold, the cost is people dig in, people dig more than 100 million, the Spring after the mine even if he had. I said that China Central Television broadcast the news came, my book which details introduction of CCTV nobody say three gold, all sold to foreigners by.
indium our country, I went to the Central Party School lectures preceding the time there is a mayor, he said the following in our indium There, the result of a sold to people in our country when the waste. If it is not an accident, we now have almost sold out of indium.
our earth, we accounted for 70% of the world's rare earth, such as the production of such sophisticated weapons, like the United States the patriotic those missiles can not accomplish what matter from the earth, away from the earth to Xiecai. Americans off their rare earth mine, what? to buy from China! off Australia, from China to buy! Britain off from China to buy! All countries have such rare earth all are closed. I found the data, no country is still mined, only China in mining. and they (developed countries) also lowered our prices in disguise, our prices down in a year more than 60%. We sell the earth when the genuine people. Moreover, we can then sell the rare earth 30 years .30 years, up to 50 years after the earth we can only buy from abroad, no matter how much time you take money, people will not sell it to you.
resources for the king of the times, resources are sold in exchange for money, money is what a 100 dollar bill is printed down 1 cent to 3 cents (the costs). If such a black sheep in our country, this way is very terrible waste of resources. I have written a book which is very system. We will not be able to sell resources and to go abroad to buy, but now no one to buy, are selling.
me a friend is a state-owned veterans, a few days before he went to Jiangxi, there are many mines. He listened to the foreigner in English with the call and say: Mine are cheap, people here are stupid, mine good buy. Well, that does still under China's current GDP growth is 8% to maintain effective, 9%, that is the Sichuan earthquake this year because of the loss of 850 billion, then there is plus deficit in the Olympic Games is the most important financial crisis stands to reason that we China's GDP should be down this year, fell 3,4 percentage points it at least! but I read the first few days of news, he said China will maintain this year's GDP growth of 8%, and the country will strive to maintain growth of 8%. I would like to ask 8% in the end this is a benefit to the people, that is, 8% in the end this is to give people see, the enhanced production of active, or is it really benefit the people, or make the wealthy and strong country. I 8% in the end the question is do any good to the people.
when Ice: The 8% of it, he is a conclusion drawn by economists, that is less than 8% after the job is 8% The bottom line is a breakthrough, it will generate lot of employment problems.
fact, our GDP did not make much sense. GDP poor people have no meaning, only when a country, the people's income and GDP growth to keep pace when , the GDP makes sense.
we should be the most difficult first half of this year, started to show a difficult time, in the first half 1-6 month we revenue growth rate is 3 times GDP. fiscal revenue is still big magnitude to the concentration inside the government hands. As the financial crisis, I study the financial crisis, many financial crises of history, I think history is not one to resist the financial crisis in this way to resist. in this way will only worsen its impact . Thank you!
students F: Hello my teacher when I want to ask a question that maybe all of our guests want to know of this problem, why do we spend a lot of money in China, a lot of effort to buy U.S. debt, first of all is this. that according to you just said, why buy the debt we can not ask him to come back, which is another point. If you said to come back if we the money, including a lot of foreign exchange , on which place, which will increase the area to use our people's livelihood, or more conducive to the development of our country, thank you!
when the Ice: Why are they so fond of buying U.S. bonds, I'm up to now I did not come up.
United States, it is impossible to take such a large debt, he can only rely on? can only rely on printed notes, by currency devaluation, by issuing new debt to dilute its existing debt. because it is the world's international currency, he is the reserve currency, he has such qualifications. to buy U.S. treasury bonds is very uneconomical.
bonds that? he is the country's reputation for security, he is not a corresponding asset is credibility. But reputation is not worth a damn in some cases, such as. that is the case, he said, you turn on the turn, I do not yet you how it? you beat him, how do you tell him to? you to petition, to petition the United Nations you?
and then, our country's foreign exchange reserves, with us in the textbooks say the United Kingdom, the United States who is not the same kind of foreign exchange reserves. I did the last show in Phoenix, Phoenix a tiger Yixi Tan , Peking University, a doctoral tutor, teaching economics, a doctoral tutor, is a word he was anxious to provoke me, because he did not clarify the concept of foreign exchange reserves, and I stood up and said: I'm fed up, I have give you guidance in economics common sense I'll tell you the debate. our country's foreign exchange reserves of foreign exchange reserves with the developed countries is not a concept, it is mostly debt. Why?
You see, Japan's foreign exchange reserves of these countries that they also increased, he is rely on the increase? fiscal surplus to buy foreign exchange reserves, issuing treasury bonds to buy foreign exchange reserves. We are a nation rely on foreign exchange reserves to buy? I'll give you an example, say it clear, for example, because no examples Sometimes that special hate these abstract things, and sometimes that half the people do not understand, but you embarrassed to tell me you did not understand, back when you still confused.
example, you relatives from the United States send you a 100 million U.S. dollars, of course, is the assumption send you $ 1,000,000. Bank to you taken away, to the central bank. central plug in the power side of the printing press, printing more than 600 million yuan to you. $ 1,000,000 that became a foreign exchange reserves.
Another example of an enterprise, which make products in China is 100 million dollars in costs, he sold to the Americans, sold for $ 2,000,000, earned 100 million U.S. dollars. Under normal circumstances, foreign exchange reserves increased by 100 million U.S. dollars, not! Americans gave you $ 2,000,000 that it is all taken away, and India more than 1,000 million yuan to you. This is why our country when the appreciation of the RMB outside of devaluation within. His roots in this.
since the founding of our country from just released a second special treasury bonds issued in 2007 is 1.5 trillion of special treasury bonds to buy. I have all the rest do not know. because our country's fiscal deficit is, you have no other issue of such bonds to buy, but you have no reason to increase that much (reserves), and later this year in August from a national adjustment policies of forced settlement adjustment, should possession of Department of the people. our country of this foreign exchange reserves are liabilities, the vast majority of liabilities. Today, we all understand the lecture. next time you see Peking University professor who you can talk to him about.
Another point I say the way, I'm not enemies with North ah! but Beijing University professor who always hit me on the gun. I next batch of several professors of Beijing University, Beijing University who was Trustee looking for me, I find I want to sit and say we can not help but mention something Peking University. All right! this to answer to this.
student G: Hello my teacher when this is not the national expansion of that infrastructure, is to expand roads, railways, these construction, they are can drive the development of other industries and economic growth, should be very good measure. But why he is the next downturn in the Chinese economy would.
when the Ice: Well, I answered your question. Why did he cause this situation? me give you an example.
Fuyang airport, I mean the airport. He is a farm chicken. He was using 380 million in 1998 investment, 3.8 billion to build. He was built when the requirements with Beijing, Shanghai ratio. he was the number of people per hour out of Hong Kong 600. He is built according to high standards, built after completing no planes to fly. then is to organize students rushed to the holiday, holidays, going to get there throwing paper airplane, because the resources are not wasted ah! can not use it later, it was a pity to waste of resources found in the chicken in it. for this kind of thing it is invalid, it is Invalid drive.
you say a lot of roads, this year he not run a few cars, why do you repair such a good road ah? What's more, much more you build that road is also money, ah! This is the people's livelihood What are the benefits? He is invalid, and the construction process and a lot of corruption, to have 70% of the funds for the construction of this road has been very good, and he pull ah invalid.
what is now the time? is When poor people. In time of poor people, concern for the future, when everyone, why not put this money to the people? You made of steel and concrete on the top. We raise chickens, dirt roads that we can raise chickens, we do not So luxurious airport to be built to chicken ah! chicken it does not meet ah. Thank you!
student H: when the teacher is good, it is said, we already know the interpretation of some of the conclusions and methods, but still can not stop a number of vested interests of those who exploit the people, then he can not influence politics, then how are we to do? If you can not stop their exploitation, we then study the history of political economy, then what's the use?
when the Ice: So hopes on you. so you stop to this position when you push forward reform. at least we remember that we do not Dangnu Cai, we are upright people. We should promote the construction and improvement of the system. to our basic life assurance and life The most basic dignity. Only the people of a country rich in dignity and happiness, a sense of security, this nation can hope to. Thank you
Moderator: There are two more questions.
students I: when Mr. Hello. is a series of economic stimulus plan, whether the improvement in China's real economy? or is this just an illusion, then the real economy in China will continue to deteriorate. There is, China's stock market can really be barometer of China's economy, or that he is only a speculation and unhealthy market. Thank you!
when Ice: I infer that our real economy will continue to deteriorate, because the measures we are not good, it is the inevitable result . We go to Japan in the posterior, soon follow. So, that I now also to the central recommendation to adjust the relevant policies.
second this one on the stock market, China's stock market is difficult as China barometer of the economy. Why? because there's shady too much, I give you a simple example. wave of market to do down, some people made a lot of money, some people have been made destitute.
If we follow the the kind of sound system in Europe and America, under the form of the kind of market to maintain our market, so that we can get more stable dividends, we would not be so big ups and downs of the stock market. because of what? because investors get dividends than the deposit Bank earnings are high, many economists have read said: ah! Americans do not like savings, Americans do not save preferences. I say you do not sing, why do you give me that Americans are not saving preferences? he had stock dividends than the high interest, so they do not want to save. We are not here, ah, took money from the savings in, watch out, he did not see you, next time he was not entered, and entered.
can not give you an expect a stable expectations, just like housing prices, rising prices can not give you the same feeling of a home. a nation what is most important? sense of belonging!
when we sit very bright and spacious classrooms, when we walk in a very good, expensive road, but we did not feel at home, no sense of belonging. But you see the Americans, he will tell you: anywhere in the world can be protected! people have a sense of belonging.
student J: Hello my teacher when you mentioned the Olympic Games on the Chinese economy relatively large impact. Now I just want to ask, you will be held in Shanghai World Expo in China's economic or economic entity, he will produce what kind of impact, can I analyze. well, thank you!
when Ice: I teach you a method to analyze, you can calculate the time to put it to the fireworks That number is how much weight by the introduction of this conclusion. probably more than I now give you a better conclusion.
country if we accept the previous lesson, thrift, simplicity that we are not extravagant, we do not give face paste, we give people the paste, provide employment opportunities to the people, so that people at any one time have felt love, like the World Expo, the people will welcome, but also will promote the role of social progress. Instead, as with the Olympics. Thank you!
students K: the teacher, I have a problem. I may not so much the concept of global outlook and current situation, I am only interested in personal finance and investment. You say we are untouchable stocks and funds, China if the property market will definitely fall, and banks, the interest rates again in tune ah ah tune tune, and no one sustained. So we finance and investment channels for Chinese people, so little, how do we come to investment banking to outperform the inflation expansion of it?
when Ice: ah hh do you still reading?
students K: right.
when Ice: First is the case, I think so, as far as possible in school days The following points less in money management skills. Never mind, I did not criticize you, I mean, in school, you can learn a lot through the financial stuff, this is real.
I mean that you devote more energy to use on the basis of courses, read some books more important. because of financial management, you'll never have the financial opportunity, but the opportunity to learn so little time. as I do now, leave school, When we want to re-read the time, they can only stay up all night reading, can only stay up all night. But we're very comfortable conditions. you want to study, we have such a good light, we are so good, so beautiful campus, very good learning Environmental ah! do not have to dig even electricity.
should read more books at this time, a lot of time reading. on the financial management this one, in fact, such a mechanism in China is not really a good financial opportunity, especially people. Because we are still under a law of the jungle, because our system does not protect the weak, the strong to protect.
such marriage, marriage used to be Crown, has now become your own actions. He is in fact a protection of the people mistresses. That is the government whether you, as long as they do not tell you nothing. Many of our system is to protect the strong, not to protect the weak. because the laws he is strong, because people in the development, in the decision-making he had no right to participate in the process.
you say a lot of systems in the development process, I also wrote above, I think they are beneficial to the people's livelihood in these areas, this view I will be described in detail, but some things are no use, because their power is too strong.
you look at who the real financial management, a few can make money? Ye Hao, whether real estate, real estate, but also down, he set live as you would have not come a few years, the stock market turn down to a few years, but to the body, you go to the bank, at least he still has interest.
What do you really want the best financial management? read a good book for you in the future, the future money, go and get resources, to buy resources. or that a peace of mind you are now reading, so you develop your future, you please me as a consultant, I teach you financial management. < br> I mean, you must carefully read, this is my big brother to you as an ardent hope, because what? all hope is on you.